Week 11 College Football Rankings

Alabama holds the top spot at 8-0 heading into their Week 11 tilt with LSU in Baton Rouge. The Tide have, for weeks now, looked like the class of the college football landscape but can the Tide “hold that Tiger” in a feisty Death Valley this Saturday?

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#7 Auburn, who is a game behind Bama and already holding a head-t0-head victory over LSU is hoping for a huge upset in Baton Rouge. The Tigers held off Ole Miss this weekend to keep their SEC West title hopes alive.

#2 Clemson also held off a similarly hard-charging Florida State team beating the Seminoles in their own Death Valley this past Saturday to maintain their undefeated record.

Perhaps the biggest surprise(s) amongst the top 25 this week is the emergence of mid-major and #10 Western Michigan as well as 6-1 and #11 Troy. Those two teams are ranked higher than midway up the rankings by result of their high-ish margin of victory tally (WMU at 25.1 and Troy at 17.7). Both would be ranked higher if it weren’t for their unsurprisingly low SOS marks–both are lower than 50% for their opponents’ marks.

WMU is leading the MAC at 8-0 and likewise undefeated in conference games while Troy’s only loss came against #2  Clemson earlier this year.

conf-standings-after-11-cfb

The SEC holds the top spot amongst conferences in the Bassford Power Index. The ACC comes up just behind their southeastern counterparts with two teams in the top 10, Clemson and Louisville.

One mid-major ranks higher than a Power 5 conference as The American conference–with two top 25 teams in Houston and Temple–leads the Big 12 by a small margin. The Big 12 doesn’t have a single team in the top 10 and their top ranked team from last week, West Virginia, dropped a critical game this weekend lowering their ranking down to 22nd this week.

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The below is a compiled record tally for the Bassford College Football Matrix rankings throughout the 2016 season. The final column on the right records the overall FBS record for home teams by respective week of the season.

predictions-cfb-2016-after-11

 

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Win with Valek! – A Passionate Request to Start the “embattled” pitcher

Surprisingly, LSU is in the hole after going up 2-0 in the Baton Rouge Regional. In one game, the Tigers went from wielder-of-the-big-stick to fighting for their lives on their own home turf. The Tigers lost to Rice 10-6 Monday night as the Owls finished off their Monday with 25 runs scored in two games securing a winner-take-all game seven on foreign soil Tuesday afternoon.

The question that remains after three games in the Baton Rouge Regional for the Tigers is, who will start game 7?

There’s two guys I can think of: One, a “known quantity” guy. An established pitcher. And another, a newcomer who has decent numbers from a surmised lesser baseball market. One is Jared Poche and the other is John Valek.

Continue reading “Win with Valek! – A Passionate Request to Start the “embattled” pitcher”

3.17.2016 Rankings Explained

Today I posted the first public version of my college baseball rankings. They are, quite simply, something for which I am very proud. I would like to explain how I arrived at these rankings below. Afterward, I will post the top 25 for review.

The columns in the rankings are as follows:

Rank – as ranked by the Bassford formula.

Team – Name of Division 1 school

Current Rating – This is an ELO Chess ratings matrix I created specifically for college baseball along with some creative input garnered by reading the works of smart people like Arpad Elo, FootballOutsiders.com, FiveThirtyEight.com and the book Mathletics, by Wayne Winston.

W’s and L’s – Up to date win-loss records for each Division 1 program.

SOS – Strength of schedule percentages for games played per team.

SOV – Strength of victory percentages for games won per team.

W2 and L2 – Future wins and losses predicted by the Pythagorean method. This utilizes a teams scoring ratio (points scored/points allowed) to predict a win-loss record based on a full season’s worth of games. The formula used here had a MAD of .038 or the equivalent of a 2 game error margin.

PrdW’s and PrdL’s – Future wins and losses predicted by a team’s current ELO rating set against their remaining schedule and taking into account home field advantage.

AvgRk – Weighted average of a team’s ELO rating, their predictive Pythagorean record and their predictive ELO schedule.

RK Team Current Rating W L SOS SOV W2 L2 PrdWs PrdL AvgRk
1 Florida 1843.45 18 1 48.1% 46.2% 46 10 55 1 8.49
2 Louisville 1794.55 15 2 46.6% 40.2% 52 4 47 9 8.47
3 Ole Miss 1790.54 17 1 50.4% 48.1% 47 9 53 4 8.42
4 Texas A&M 1785.47 16 1 40.1% 39.5% 51 5 49 7 8.37
5 South Carolina 1763.08 17 2 49.9% 46.3% 49 7 45 11 8.30
6 Vanderbilt 1799.10 16 1 36.9% 35.6% 50 6 49 7 8.17
7 North Carolina 1749.59 14 2 55.4% 55.4% 46 10 49 6 8.14
8 Michigan State 1765.71 13 1 52.9% 51.0% 46 10 53 1 8.11
9 TCU 1681.87 13 3 47.3% 47.3% 47 9 49 6 8.04
10 Clemson 1787.11 13 3 54.8% 53.5% 46 10 47 9 7.97
11 BYU 1740.78 16 1 38.7% 37.5% 46 10 51 1 7.90
12 Florida State 1717.76 13 4 55.3% 50.8% 46 10 37 18 7.84
13 St. Bonaventure 1730.58 9 2 37.7% 38.4% 46 10 52 2 7.71
14 LSU 1713.41 13 3 49.1% 47.9% 44 12 35 21 7.70
15 Southern Miss 1698.79 14 4 53.5% 49.8% 41 15 47 9 7.70
16 Florida Atlantic 1673.92 13 2 41.8% 40.6% 44 12 47 8 7.64
17 Missouri State 1703.35 14 2 36.2% 32.5% 45 11 49 6 7.63
18 Oklahoma State 1684.16 11 6 61.2% 55.2% 42 14 45 10 7.60
19 Oregon State 1633.87 12 2 45.3% 46.5% 43 13 42 13 7.57
20 Morehead State 1651.75 12 4 49.9% 43.9% 44 12 45 13 7.56
21 Boston College 1729.36 12 3 40.0% 36.1% 45 11 42 12 7.55
22 Tennessee 1662.60 11 5 50.2% 47.6% 44 12 27 29 7.53
23 Arkansas 1638.64 15 3 30.5% 27.5% 45 11 30 26 7.52
24 NC State 1642.86 14 5 60.4% 56.3% 35 21 36 20 7.51
25 UC Santa Barbara 1686.28 12 3 53.2% 51.3% 39 17 49 7 7.51

LHP Mac Marshall and others headed for Baton Rouge

LHP Mac Marshall and others headed for Baton Rouge

Maybe this will be the last baseball post of the summer, but it’s a follow up to this week’s 2015 preview.  This year’s MLB Draft has gone pretty well for next year’s baseball hopes and we’re hoping to have one of the most complete recruiting classes in a long time make their way to campus this fall.  That’s a tremendous victory not simply for next year but for Tiger baseball in the next two to three years.