3.17.2016 Rankings Explained

Today I posted the first public version of my college baseball rankings. They are, quite simply, something for which I am very proud. I would like to explain how I arrived at these rankings below. Afterward, I will post the top 25 for review.

The columns in the rankings are as follows:

Rank – as ranked by the Bassford formula.

Team – Name of Division 1 school

Current Rating – This is an ELO Chess ratings matrix I created specifically for college baseball along with some creative input garnered by reading the works of smart people like Arpad Elo, FootballOutsiders.com, FiveThirtyEight.com and the book Mathletics, by Wayne Winston.

W’s and L’s – Up to date win-loss records for each Division 1 program.

SOS – Strength of schedule percentages for games played per team.

SOV – Strength of victory percentages for games won per team.

W2 and L2 – Future wins and losses predicted by the Pythagorean method. This utilizes a teams scoring ratio (points scored/points allowed) to predict a win-loss record based on a full season’s worth of games. The formula used here had a MAD of .038 or the equivalent of a 2 game error margin.

PrdW’s and PrdL’s – Future wins and losses predicted by a team’s current ELO rating set against their remaining schedule and taking into account home field advantage.

AvgRk – Weighted average of a team’s ELO rating, their predictive Pythagorean record and their predictive ELO schedule.

RK Team Current Rating W L SOS SOV W2 L2 PrdWs PrdL AvgRk
1 Florida 1843.45 18 1 48.1% 46.2% 46 10 55 1 8.49
2 Louisville 1794.55 15 2 46.6% 40.2% 52 4 47 9 8.47
3 Ole Miss 1790.54 17 1 50.4% 48.1% 47 9 53 4 8.42
4 Texas A&M 1785.47 16 1 40.1% 39.5% 51 5 49 7 8.37
5 South Carolina 1763.08 17 2 49.9% 46.3% 49 7 45 11 8.30
6 Vanderbilt 1799.10 16 1 36.9% 35.6% 50 6 49 7 8.17
7 North Carolina 1749.59 14 2 55.4% 55.4% 46 10 49 6 8.14
8 Michigan State 1765.71 13 1 52.9% 51.0% 46 10 53 1 8.11
9 TCU 1681.87 13 3 47.3% 47.3% 47 9 49 6 8.04
10 Clemson 1787.11 13 3 54.8% 53.5% 46 10 47 9 7.97
11 BYU 1740.78 16 1 38.7% 37.5% 46 10 51 1 7.90
12 Florida State 1717.76 13 4 55.3% 50.8% 46 10 37 18 7.84
13 St. Bonaventure 1730.58 9 2 37.7% 38.4% 46 10 52 2 7.71
14 LSU 1713.41 13 3 49.1% 47.9% 44 12 35 21 7.70
15 Southern Miss 1698.79 14 4 53.5% 49.8% 41 15 47 9 7.70
16 Florida Atlantic 1673.92 13 2 41.8% 40.6% 44 12 47 8 7.64
17 Missouri State 1703.35 14 2 36.2% 32.5% 45 11 49 6 7.63
18 Oklahoma State 1684.16 11 6 61.2% 55.2% 42 14 45 10 7.60
19 Oregon State 1633.87 12 2 45.3% 46.5% 43 13 42 13 7.57
20 Morehead State 1651.75 12 4 49.9% 43.9% 44 12 45 13 7.56
21 Boston College 1729.36 12 3 40.0% 36.1% 45 11 42 12 7.55
22 Tennessee 1662.60 11 5 50.2% 47.6% 44 12 27 29 7.53
23 Arkansas 1638.64 15 3 30.5% 27.5% 45 11 30 26 7.52
24 NC State 1642.86 14 5 60.4% 56.3% 35 21 36 20 7.51
25 UC Santa Barbara 1686.28 12 3 53.2% 51.3% 39 17 49 7 7.51
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