NCAA Tournament Final Projections

An amazing week, or two, for LSU has resulted in umpteen dozens of runs, several Sportscenter Top 10 appearances and, today, yet another SEC Tournament Championship.  This weekend has turned what would have been an outlier in last week’s beatings to Auburn and Northwestern State into a trend.  A most happily upward trend in offense, pitching depth, in almost every imaginable area.  The doctor couldn’t have prescribed better.  LSU has looked so very good the last two weeks.  The hope is–because there’s no other good reason to play and win these conference tournaments–that this hard work will result in a top eight seed.  A top eight seed means that you’ll be able to eat home cooked meals for the next two weeks before you take your regular summer work excursion to Omaha.

LSU still sits at number 9 in the RPI, according to, but the likelihood that the committee sees us at least one spot better than our RPI is really good.  It would be hard for the committee to keep that number 8 team ahead of LSU–that number 8 team is Vanderbilt.  And, aside from beating LSU on it’s home field two games to one, Vanderbilt doesn’t have much on the Tiger’s resume–we’ll just ignore LSU’s non-conference strength of schedule for 24 hours or so.  LSU tied up the season series this past Thursday with Vandy as they smacked around the Commodores en route to their tourney crowning, 11-1, in a 7-inning run rule game.  LSU has a superior overall and conference record, and though Vandy has a much better overall and non-conference strength of schedule, LSU won their conference tournament and Vanderbilt wasn’t even the second best team in their division this year.  Possibly more important is that LSU’s recent trajectory highlights Vanderbilt’s flailing end to the season–they’ve lost four of their last six games and 5-5 in their last 10.  But, admittedly, I have a rooting interest here.

lsu top 8

Moving on.  So tonight I made my best attempt at being a committee member–or at least a committee member’s lackey.  Below is the last week’s worth of effort put toward (stealing desperately needed sleep??) figuring out what will be revealed tomorrow at 11am CST on ESPNU: the NCAA Baseball Tournament, aka The Road to Omaha.  Take your time, soak it in–I sure did.

NCAA Tourney proj

If you give it any time at all, keep in mind that I learned how to use Excel to–not kidding–triangulate mileage distances from regional participant cities to host cities to ensure the least amount of travel is figured into the seedings, as much as reasonable. (no team will travel more than 2k miles and only four travel more than 1500 miles)  While at the same time, ensure that each regional’s relative difficulty is in descending rank of difficulty from the highest host seed down.  That’s way more than I expected to get into these projections–and there’s a greater chance that I’ll win the next six lottery jackpots than get these anywhere close to actual–but I’ve strangely enjoyed myself.


Sleep?  Who needs it?  🙂  Enjoy.


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