NFL after 7 weeks (Rankings, Predictions, Notes)

Yet another terrible week for the Bassford Matrix.  The games we had been pulling out late over the last few weeks did not find their way to victory this week.  Close scores laid waste to favorites Chicago, Miami and New England.  All three of those teams lost to some roller coaster ride teams in the Redskins, Bills and Jets.  Who could have imagined that the Patriots would leave home after their emotional come from behind win against my Saints and get beat in OT to the floundering Jets?  The same Jets who still now hold a minus 11 turnover margin on the season?!?  Picking the Titans at home against the 49ers seemed like a valiant thought, if for a moment, but that probably is a victim of not enough polling data to fully understand how good San Fran really plays.  Picking the Vikings on Monday Night seemed great until Josh Freeman got involved.

2013

2012

Games Played

107

256

% of Games Played w/ yardage leader winning the game

62.6%

61.7%

% of Games Played w/ T/O margin leader winning the game

58.9%

63.3%

% of Games Played w/ winner of both stats winning the game

94.1%

92.9%

Predictive Power

64.8%

64.7%

Picking Home Team

61.7%

57.4%

 Notice I have included the statistic for simply picking the home team.  I figure that if I’m going to make any use of this statistical analysis I might as well enter in a few opposing markers.  If one happens to only pick the home team one would at least have been right 61 percent of the time so far this year.  That number declines over the season but it seems to be nearly as good as the Matrix thus far.  So, we will have to go back to the drawing board over the next few weeks and see what the issues are and possibly revamp the ratings formula.

At any rate, you can see the rankings below for this week’s games.

Nickname

RANK

Points Scored

Points Allowed

Yards Gained

Yards Allowed

T/O Margin

Value

SEAHAWKS

1

27.3

16.6

368.6

282.1

7

5.50

CHIEFS

2

24.1

11.6

330.7

304.6

12

5.12

SAINTS

3

26.8

17.2

397.7

338.0

5

4.91

BRONCOS

4

42.6

28.1

469.3

397.0

-3

3.91

PACKERS

5

28.0

21.2

434.7

345.8

-2

3.58

PANTHERS

6

23.2

13.8

327.5

302.2

5

3.33

COLTS

7

26.7

18.7

344.7

350.7

7

3.21

49ERS

8

25.1

19.3

335.0

326.1

4

2.98

PATRIOTS

9

21.7

18.1

341.1

352.7

5

2.54

BENGALS

10

21.1

19.3

365.0

334.3

-2

2.41

LIONS

11

26.6

23.9

386.4

397.1

5

2.21

COWBOYS

12

28.6

22.1

352.1

393.9

6

2.02

BEARS

13

30.4

29.4

367.7

391.0

7

1.63

TITANS

14

20.7

20.9

311.6

337.0

5

1.45

CHARGERS

15

24.0

20.6

402.3

378.3

-6

1.44

EAGLES

16

24.1

28.0

425.3

412.7

1

1.02

REDSKINS

17

25.3

30.7

415.8

389.0

-2

0.88

TEXANS

18

17.4

27.7

381.1

267.7

-11

0.71

RAIDERS

19

17.5

22.0

320.8

339.3

1

0.70

BILLS

20

22.7

25.4

333.3

380.4

5

0.68

RAVENS

21

21.4

21.1

328.7

343.0

-2

0.66

BROWNS

22

18.7

22.3

313.7

318.9

-1

0.61

FALCONS

23

25.5

26.2

374.7

366.3

-2

0.50

JETS

24

19.1

23.1

343.3

302.6

-11

0.12

RAMS

25

22.3

26.3

298.7

373.4

3

0.07

CARDINALS

26

19.0

23.0

309.7

349.7

-2

-0.03

DOLPHINS

27

22.5

23.3

312.7

372.2

-1

-0.25

STEELERS

28

17.8

22.0

329.8

306.8

-10

-0.42

BUCCANEERS

29

14.5

22.0

297.8

340.8

0

-1.06

VIKINGS

30

22.0

30.2

316.3

391.2

-2

-2.05

GIANTS

31

18.0

30.9

328.1

364.9

-14

-2.96

JAGUARS

32

10.9

31.7

282.0

391.4

-7

-4.25

Total

23.0

23.0

351.5

351.3

0

1.29

Below are the future prognostications for the NFL.  You’ll notice the predicted division winners stay about the same as they were last week.  Further down you’ll note the playoff groupings and bracket.

Nickname

W

L

WPCT

W

L

W

L

COWBOYS

9

7

56.3%

5

1

8

4

EAGLES

9

7

56.3%

4

2

9

3

REDSKINS

7

9

43.8%

3

3

5

7

GIANTS

1

15

6.3%

0

6

1

11

LIONS

11

5

68.8%

4

2

8

4

PACKERS

11

5

68.8%

4

2

8

4

BEARS

9

7

56.3%

4

2

6

6

VIKINGS

1

15

6.3%

0

6

0

12

SAINTS

13

3

81.3%

5

1

10

2

PANTHERS

11

5

68.8%

5

1

8

4

FALCONS

3

13

18.8%

1

5

3

9

BUCCANEERS

3

13

18.8%

1

5

1

11

SEAHAWKS

15

1

93.8%

6

0

12

0

49ERS

12

4

75.0%

4

2

9

3

CARDINALS

7

9

43.8%

1

5

5

7

RAMS

6

10

37.5%

1

5

3

9

PATRIOTS

11

5

68.8%

5

1

8

4

BILLS

7

9

43.8%

3

3

5

7

JETS

7

9

43.8%

3

3

5

7

DOLPHINS

5

11

31.3%

1

5

4

8

BENGALS

12

4

75.0%

4

2

9

3

RAVENS

8

8

50.0%

3

3

7

5

BROWNS

7

9

43.8%

3

3

5

7

STEELERS

5

11

31.3%

2

4

5

7

COLTS

11

5

68.8%

5

1

7

5

TITANS

8

8

50.0%

4

2

7

5

TEXANS

6

10

37.5%

3

3

6

6

JAGUARS

0

16

0.0%

0

6

0

12

CHIEFS

15

1

93.8%

5

1

11

1

BRONCOS

13

3

81.3%

5

1

9

3

CHARGERS

7

9

43.8%

1

5

4

8

RAIDERS

6

10

37.5%

1

5

4

8

WildCard

Divisional

Conference

3

LIONS

2.2

2

SAINTS

7.9

6

PACKERS

3.6

3

LIONS

5.2

2

SAINTS

4.9

5

49ERS

3.0

1

SEAHAWKS

8.5

4

COWBOYS

5.0

4

COWBOYS

2.0

1

SEAHAWKS

8.5

SUPER BOWL

1

SEAHAWKS

5.5

1

CHIEFS

5.1

WildCard

Divisional

Conference

3

COLTS

3.2

2

BENGALS

5.4

6

RAVENS

0.7

3

COLTS

6.2

2

BENGALS

2.4

5

BRONCOS

3.9

1

CHIEFS

8.1

4

PATRIOTS

5.5

4

PATRIOTS

2.5

1

CHIEFS

8.1

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