LSU 2013 BCS Contention. It’s so simple.

So what does LSU have to do to win it all?  Still…now that we’ve lost a game already…now that our hopes aren’t fully dashed for the year?

Well I’m very glad that I prompted you to ask!

To wit, let’s first take a look at the games yet to be played by LSU and all the teams ahead of the Tigers in the BCS hunt.  Instead of looking at every game yet to play, let’s look at the ones with the highest probability for falling LSU’s way.

“BCS” Approx Rank

Team

Date

Field

Opponent

Teams

Games by Team

4

Clemson

10/19/2013

Home

Florida State

Clemson

4

5

Florida State

10/19/2013

Away

Clemson

Florida State

4

4

Clemson

10/26/2013

Away

Maryland

LSU

3

3

Ohio State

10/26/2013

Home

Penn State

Ohio State

2

2

Oregon

10/26/2013

Home

UCLA

Oregon

2

5

Florida State

11/2/2013

Home

Miami

Louisville

2

2

Oregon

11/7/2013

Away

Stanford

Texas A&M

1

1

Bama

11/9/2013

Home

LSU

Bama

1

8

LSU

11/9/2013

Away

Bama

Grand Total

19

6

Louisville

11/16/2013

Home

Houston

8

LSU

11/23/2013

Home

Texas A&M

7

Texas A&M

11/23/2013

Away

LSU

4

Clemson

11/30/2013

Away

South Carolina

5

Florida State

11/30/2013

Away

Florida

3

Ohio State

11/30/2013

Away

Michigan

4

Clemson

12/5/2013

neutral

C’ship

5

Florida State

12/5/2013

neutral

C’ship

6

Louisville

12/5/2013

Away

Cincinnati

8

LSU

12/5/2013

neutral

C’ship

That leaves us with 19 realistic shots at glory for the Purple and Gold.  That number can be further dwindled down once one or two games go our way.

For instance, if Oregon loses to UCLA then we should no longer have to worry about Oregon losing to Stanford.  Also, if Florida State loses to Clemson then we no longer have to worry about any of Clemson’s remaining contests and we can then eliminate them from the list.  LSU’s most bothersome hurdles are listed, because, without LSU acing the rest of their schedule none of this can happen.  We already used that PS3 cheat code in 2007.

Whittling the list even more:

RK

Team

Date

Field

Opponent

1

Oregon

10/26/2013

Home

UCLA

1

Oregon

11/7/2013

Away

Stanford

2

Ohio State

10/26/2013

Home

Penn State

2

Ohio State

11/30/2013

Away

Michigan

3

Clemson

10/26/2013

Away

Maryland

3

Clemson

11/30/2013

Away

South Carolina

3

Clemson

12/5/2013

neutral

C’ship

3

Florida State

12/5/2013

neutral

C’ship

3

Florida State

11/2/2013

Home

Miami

3

Florida State

11/30/2013

Away

Florida

4

LSU

11/9/2013

Away

Bama

4

LSU

11/23/2013

Home

Texas A&M

4

LSU

12/5/2013

neutral

C’ship

Notice I’ve completely eliminated Louisville from this list.  That is not an error.  It is completely on purpose.  After looking at a few of the BCS computer rankings from this past weekend, I’m confident that there is no chance an undefeated Louisville team ekes out a higher ranking than LSU assuming the Tigers run the table taking the SEC Championship.  Not a single chance in the world.

Also gone are Bama and A&M as they would have lost to LSU head to head.  That only leaves Oregon, OSU, Clemson/FSU and the Bayou Bengals.  Once FSU and Clemson claw through each other we will only be left with one option.  If choosing betwixt the two schools, I’d take Florida State based on the overall difficulty of their remaining schedule—though South Carolina may be the best overall opponent remaining for either team; it’s a match set in USC’s backyard, too.

With three remaining teams, LSU needs only two of those to drop out.  Therefore, one could say that LSU simply needs TWO games to go our way.  Not exactly the fantastical dramatics needed for our 2007 Championship entry.  If it were me deciding, instead of fate, I’d have Clemson beat Florida State.  Then, Stanford would stun Oregon in Palo Alto.  Finally, Clemson would lose an absolute heartbreaker to the cross-state rival Gamecocks in the regular season finale.  That would set the stage for yet another OSU meltdown in the BCS Championship game against an SEC rival.  What better way to send out the BCS as we currently know it?

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