Yet another terrible week for the Bassford Matrix. The games we had been pulling out late over the last few weeks did not find their way to victory this week. Close scores laid waste to favorites Chicago, Miami and New England. All three of those teams lost to some roller coaster ride teams in the Redskins, Bills and Jets. Who could have imagined that the Patriots would leave home after their emotional come from behind win against my Saints and get beat in OT to the floundering Jets? The same Jets who still now hold a minus 11 turnover margin on the season?!? Picking the Titans at home against the 49ers seemed like a valiant thought, if for a moment, but that probably is a victim of not enough polling data to fully understand how good San Fran really plays. Picking the Vikings on Monday Night seemed great until Josh Freeman got involved.
2013 |
2012 |
|
Games Played |
107 |
256 |
% of Games Played w/ yardage leader winning the game |
62.6% |
61.7% |
% of Games Played w/ T/O margin leader winning the game |
58.9% |
63.3% |
% of Games Played w/ winner of both stats winning the game |
94.1% |
92.9% |
Predictive Power |
64.8% |
64.7% |
Picking Home Team |
61.7% |
57.4% |
Notice I have included the statistic for simply picking the home team. I figure that if I’m going to make any use of this statistical analysis I might as well enter in a few opposing markers. If one happens to only pick the home team one would at least have been right 61 percent of the time so far this year. That number declines over the season but it seems to be nearly as good as the Matrix thus far. So, we will have to go back to the drawing board over the next few weeks and see what the issues are and possibly revamp the ratings formula.
At any rate, you can see the rankings below for this week’s games.
Nickname |
RANK |
Points Scored |
Points Allowed |
Yards Gained |
Yards Allowed |
T/O Margin |
Value |
SEAHAWKS |
1 |
27.3 |
16.6 |
368.6 |
282.1 |
7 |
5.50 |
CHIEFS |
2 |
24.1 |
11.6 |
330.7 |
304.6 |
12 |
5.12 |
SAINTS |
3 |
26.8 |
17.2 |
397.7 |
338.0 |
5 |
4.91 |
BRONCOS |
4 |
42.6 |
28.1 |
469.3 |
397.0 |
-3 |
3.91 |
PACKERS |
5 |
28.0 |
21.2 |
434.7 |
345.8 |
-2 |
3.58 |
PANTHERS |
6 |
23.2 |
13.8 |
327.5 |
302.2 |
5 |
3.33 |
COLTS |
7 |
26.7 |
18.7 |
344.7 |
350.7 |
7 |
3.21 |
49ERS |
8 |
25.1 |
19.3 |
335.0 |
326.1 |
4 |
2.98 |
PATRIOTS |
9 |
21.7 |
18.1 |
341.1 |
352.7 |
5 |
2.54 |
BENGALS |
10 |
21.1 |
19.3 |
365.0 |
334.3 |
-2 |
2.41 |
LIONS |
11 |
26.6 |
23.9 |
386.4 |
397.1 |
5 |
2.21 |
COWBOYS |
12 |
28.6 |
22.1 |
352.1 |
393.9 |
6 |
2.02 |
BEARS |
13 |
30.4 |
29.4 |
367.7 |
391.0 |
7 |
1.63 |
TITANS |
14 |
20.7 |
20.9 |
311.6 |
337.0 |
5 |
1.45 |
CHARGERS |
15 |
24.0 |
20.6 |
402.3 |
378.3 |
-6 |
1.44 |
EAGLES |
16 |
24.1 |
28.0 |
425.3 |
412.7 |
1 |
1.02 |
REDSKINS |
17 |
25.3 |
30.7 |
415.8 |
389.0 |
-2 |
0.88 |
TEXANS |
18 |
17.4 |
27.7 |
381.1 |
267.7 |
-11 |
0.71 |
RAIDERS |
19 |
17.5 |
22.0 |
320.8 |
339.3 |
1 |
0.70 |
BILLS |
20 |
22.7 |
25.4 |
333.3 |
380.4 |
5 |
0.68 |
RAVENS |
21 |
21.4 |
21.1 |
328.7 |
343.0 |
-2 |
0.66 |
BROWNS |
22 |
18.7 |
22.3 |
313.7 |
318.9 |
-1 |
0.61 |
FALCONS |
23 |
25.5 |
26.2 |
374.7 |
366.3 |
-2 |
0.50 |
JETS |
24 |
19.1 |
23.1 |
343.3 |
302.6 |
-11 |
0.12 |
RAMS |
25 |
22.3 |
26.3 |
298.7 |
373.4 |
3 |
0.07 |
CARDINALS |
26 |
19.0 |
23.0 |
309.7 |
349.7 |
-2 |
-0.03 |
DOLPHINS |
27 |
22.5 |
23.3 |
312.7 |
372.2 |
-1 |
-0.25 |
STEELERS |
28 |
17.8 |
22.0 |
329.8 |
306.8 |
-10 |
-0.42 |
BUCCANEERS |
29 |
14.5 |
22.0 |
297.8 |
340.8 |
0 |
-1.06 |
VIKINGS |
30 |
22.0 |
30.2 |
316.3 |
391.2 |
-2 |
-2.05 |
GIANTS |
31 |
18.0 |
30.9 |
328.1 |
364.9 |
-14 |
-2.96 |
JAGUARS |
32 |
10.9 |
31.7 |
282.0 |
391.4 |
-7 |
-4.25 |
Total |
23.0 |
23.0 |
351.5 |
351.3 |
0 |
1.29 |
Below are the future prognostications for the NFL. You’ll notice the predicted division winners stay about the same as they were last week. Further down you’ll note the playoff groupings and bracket.
Nickname |
W |
L |
WPCT |
W |
L |
W |
L |
COWBOYS |
9 |
7 |
56.3% |
5 |
1 |
8 |
4 |
EAGLES |
9 |
7 |
56.3% |
4 |
2 |
9 |
3 |
REDSKINS |
7 |
9 |
43.8% |
3 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
GIANTS |
1 |
15 |
6.3% |
0 |
6 |
1 |
11 |
LIONS |
11 |
5 |
68.8% |
4 |
2 |
8 |
4 |
PACKERS |
11 |
5 |
68.8% |
4 |
2 |
8 |
4 |
BEARS |
9 |
7 |
56.3% |
4 |
2 |
6 |
6 |
VIKINGS |
1 |
15 |
6.3% |
0 |
6 |
0 |
12 |
SAINTS |
13 |
3 |
81.3% |
5 |
1 |
10 |
2 |
PANTHERS |
11 |
5 |
68.8% |
5 |
1 |
8 |
4 |
FALCONS |
3 |
13 |
18.8% |
1 |
5 |
3 |
9 |
BUCCANEERS |
3 |
13 |
18.8% |
1 |
5 |
1 |
11 |
SEAHAWKS |
15 |
1 |
93.8% |
6 |
0 |
12 |
0 |
49ERS |
12 |
4 |
75.0% |
4 |
2 |
9 |
3 |
CARDINALS |
7 |
9 |
43.8% |
1 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
RAMS |
6 |
10 |
37.5% |
1 |
5 |
3 |
9 |
PATRIOTS |
11 |
5 |
68.8% |
5 |
1 |
8 |
4 |
BILLS |
7 |
9 |
43.8% |
3 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
JETS |
7 |
9 |
43.8% |
3 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
DOLPHINS |
5 |
11 |
31.3% |
1 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
BENGALS |
12 |
4 |
75.0% |
4 |
2 |
9 |
3 |
RAVENS |
8 |
8 |
50.0% |
3 |
3 |
7 |
5 |
BROWNS |
7 |
9 |
43.8% |
3 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
STEELERS |
5 |
11 |
31.3% |
2 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
COLTS |
11 |
5 |
68.8% |
5 |
1 |
7 |
5 |
TITANS |
8 |
8 |
50.0% |
4 |
2 |
7 |
5 |
TEXANS |
6 |
10 |
37.5% |
3 |
3 |
6 |
6 |
JAGUARS |
0 |
16 |
0.0% |
0 |
6 |
0 |
12 |
CHIEFS |
15 |
1 |
93.8% |
5 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
BRONCOS |
13 |
3 |
81.3% |
5 |
1 |
9 |
3 |
CHARGERS |
7 |
9 |
43.8% |
1 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
RAIDERS |
6 |
10 |
37.5% |
1 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
WildCard |
Divisional |
Conference |
||||||
3 |
LIONS |
2.2 |
||||||
2 |
SAINTS |
7.9 |
||||||
6 |
PACKERS |
3.6 |
||||||
3 |
LIONS |
5.2 |
||||||
2 |
SAINTS |
4.9 |
||||||
5 |
49ERS |
3.0 |
1 |
SEAHAWKS |
8.5 |
|||
4 |
COWBOYS |
5.0 |
||||||
4 |
COWBOYS |
2.0 |
||||||
1 |
SEAHAWKS |
8.5 |
||||||
SUPER BOWL |
||||||||
1 |
SEAHAWKS |
5.5 |
||||||
1 |
CHIEFS |
5.1 |
||||||
WildCard |
Divisional |
Conference |
||||||
3 |
COLTS |
3.2 |
||||||
2 |
BENGALS |
5.4 |
||||||
6 |
RAVENS |
0.7 |
||||||
3 |
COLTS |
6.2 |
||||||
2 |
BENGALS |
2.4 |
||||||
5 |
BRONCOS |
3.9 |
1 |
CHIEFS |
8.1 |
|||
4 |
PATRIOTS |
5.5 |
||||||
4 |
PATRIOTS |
2.5 |
||||||
1 |
CHIEFS |
8.1 |
One thought on “NFL after 7 weeks (Rankings, Predictions, Notes)”